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DATA ANALYSIS
THE LUMIERE DATABASE IS A BRAND NEW
SOURCE OF INFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURES OF THE EUROPEAN FILM MARKET
The LUMIERE database is more than just a collection of
information on admissions to individual films distributed in Europe. It
also offers various types of statistical analysis (not accessible on-line)
that can be used to gain a clearer understanding of certain market
structures. It therefore provides a useful statistical tool to function
alongside the Statistical Yearbook published by the European
Audiovisual Observatory since 1995. Specific reports (on a particular
market or the success of films produced in a specific country, for
example) can be produced on request, provided applications are addressed
to the Observatory
expert responsible for the database.
Content of the LUMIERE database and
interpretation of data
When the database was inaugurated on 13 November 2000,
it covered the years 1996-1999, with details of 6,395 films produced in 68
countries by some 3,918 directors. Half of these films were produced
between 1996 and 1999 and half between 1922 and 1995. Clearly, we are
unable to indicate the total number of admissions to films produced before
1996, since the figures available do not cover the whole period in which
these films were shown.

As the section on " Methodology"
points out, the database is not exhaustive and its coverage rate varies
from country to country.
The main consequences of this are as follows:
in countries with less than 80% coverage, the main
gaps concern American films other than the top ten or twenty
blockbusters;
in certain countries, the data does not cover the end
of the distribution period (ie after the first or second year of
distribution) or admissions to catalogue films.


A lack of data
on a film distributed in a particular country should be interpreted in the
light of the coverage rate for that country: if the coverage rate is very
high, it probably means that the film was not distributed in that country
or, if it was, that it achieved poor results. However, in countries with a
low coverage rate, it is clearly much more difficult to interpret a lack
of data.
Comparing
production and distribution
In countries
with a reasonable coverage rate, the LUMIERE database can be used to
determine the relationship between film production and distribution. It is
possible to compare the number of films that have definitely been
commercially distributed (since we have statistical data on admissions to
them) with the number of films produced, as indicated by national sources
(and published in the Statistical Yearbook).
For example, the
Observatory estimates that production levels within the European Union
rose from 563 feature films in 1996 to 634 in 1999. However, the number of
films definitely distributed rose from 433 in 1996 to 495 in 1998. This
might indicate either that the number of films produced is exaggerated or
that one in four European films is not commercially distributed.


In the same way, the number of films produced in the
USA can be compared with the number of American films distributed in at
least one national market within the European Union. It seems that around
one in two American films is screened in Europe.
Comparing supply and demand
It is also interesting to compare supply (ie the number
of films distributed in at least one of the member States) with demand
(expressed as the market share achieved by the various film producing
regions).


The contrast is striking: American films only represent
between 39% and 46% of supply, but account for 66-76% of admissions. On
the other hand, films produced in the European Union represent between 45%
and 53% of supply, but only 22-33% of admissions. Films from the rest of
Europe still account for less than 2.5% of those produced and a market
share of under 0.2%. Between 6 and 7% of films are made in another part of
the world, but their market share fell from 2.5% in 1996 to 0.9% in 1999.
Concentration of success
The LUMIERE database can be used to classify films in
"bands of success". The table above covers the whole European
and United States markets, showing a huge difference between the two
industries. It suggests that, while 314 American films achieved over 5
million admissions between 1996 and 1999, only 30 European films reached a
similar level of success.
CLASSIFICATION OF FILMS IN BANDS OF SUCCESS (NUMBER
OF ADMISSIONS IN EUROPEAN AND US MARKETS BETWEEN 1996 AND 1999)
|
|
Cumulation |
US Films |
Cumulation |
|
> 50 M |
1 |
1 |
18 |
18 |
|
25 M - 50 M |
6 |
7 |
53 |
71 |
|
20 - 25 M |
2 |
9 |
24 |
95 |
|
15 - 20 M |
1 |
10 |
40 |
135 |
|
10 - 15 M |
3 |
13 |
58 |
193 |
|
5 - 10 M |
17 |
30 |
122 |
315 |
|
4 - 5 M |
11 |
41 |
38 |
353 |
|
3 - 4 M |
19 |
60 |
56 |
409 |
|
2 - 3 M |
19 |
79 |
58 |
467 |
|
1 - 2 M |
58 |
137 |
86 |
553 |
|
500 000 - 1 M |
126 |
263 |
66 |
619 |
|
250 001 - 500 000 |
129 |
392 |
50 |
669 |
|
100 001 - 250 000 |
201 |
593 |
57 |
726 |
|
50 001 - 100 000 |
196 |
789 |
12 |
738 |
|
25 001 - 50 000 |
171 |
960 |
26 |
764 |
|
10 001 - 25 000 |
205 |
1165 |
35 |
799 |
|
1 001 - 10 000 |
384 |
1549 |
83 |
882 |
|
1 - 1 000 |
144 |
1693 |
32 |
914 |
Distribution of European Union films on
the EC market
The LUMIERE database provides more detailed analysis of
the distribution of films produced in the European Union on the EC market.

Admissions within the European Union to films made in
the EC increased from 162 million in 1996 to 202 million in 1999. Most of
these were admissions to films in the country of their production.
However, the number of admissions to films outside the country in which
they were produced rose from 56 million in 1996 to 82 million in 1999. The
proportion of admissions achieved outside national markets therefore grew
from 34.6% in 1996 to 40.6% in 1999.
Analysis of film exports
The LUMIERE database can be used to analyse the film
export levels achieved by specific countries. For example, the following
table lists the top fifteen countries exporting films to Europe and the
USA in 1999. Apart from the USA, the United Kingdom, France and India,
these export results are largely due to the success of one film.
|
The top
14 countries exporting films to Europe and the USA in 1999 |
|
|
Country of production |
Admissions (excl. national market) in Europe and
in the USA in 1999 |
Main Title at Export |
|
1 |
US |
536 726 728 |
Star Wars |
|
2 |
GB |
103 467 235 |
Notting Hill |
|
3 |
FR |
27 772 950 |
Astérix |
|
4 |
IT |
24 016 271 |
La vita è bella |
|
5 |
JP |
18 022 319 |
Pokemon |
|
6 |
CA |
7 505 329 |
eXistenZ |
|
7 |
ES |
6 449 261 |
Todo sobre mia madre |
|
8 |
HK |
4 824 421 |
Black Mask |
|
9 |
DE |
4 340 068 |
The Quest |
|
10 |
DK |
3 115 171 |
Festen |
|
11 |
BR |
2 421 625 |
Central do Brasil |
|
12 |
BE |
1 660 526 |
Rosetta |
|
13 |
RU |
1 428 456 |
Sibirskij tsiryulnik |
|
14 |
IN |
1 304 987 |
Taal |
The LUMIERE database can also produce a "Community
export ratio" for the various national film industries. This is the
ratio of admissions outside the national market, expressed as a percentage
of all EU admissions to the films produced by a particular country.

The European Union's five major film-producing
countries, which are also those with most admissions, have contrasting
Community export ratios. Between 55% and 70% of EU admissions to British
films take place outside the national market. At the opposite extreme,
only 5%-17% of EU admissions to German films are registered outside
Germany. The ratios for French, Spanish and Italian films are much more
variable, usually fluctuating on the basis of a single blockbuster, eg in
Italy, Il Postino in 1996 and La Vita è bella in 1998 and
1999.

As might be expected, small countries are more likely
to have high Community export ratios. If they are able to access the
Community market, films produced in small countries more easily attract a
comparatively large audience abroad than in their own country. However,
Community export ratios are usually linked, even more closely than in
large countries, to the success of a single film.
Classification
The LUMIERE database can be used to draw up different
types of chart, covering one or more markets. For example, here is the chart
of the twenty most successful films in the European Union market to have
received production aid from the Council of Europe's Eurimages fund.
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